Methodology
How Arc Builds A Forecast
Arc Predict is designed to make cash-flow assumptions inspectable. Every forecast starts from your selected account scope, separates posted history from predicted items, and labels confidence so you can tell what is known, estimated, or user-confirmed.
Synced history
Arc starts with read-only transaction history and account balances from the accounts you choose to include.
Recurring pattern detection
Known bills, paychecks, subscriptions, transfers, and repeated merchants are grouped by amount, cadence, and sample count.
Conservative forecast calendar
Fixed items are scheduled onto real upcoming dates, while variable spending is estimated from recent category behavior and confidence signals.
User-confirmed adjustments
Future changes you save in Arc, like a skipped bill or one-time expense, are applied as forecast inputs and remain visible for review.
What Forecast Labels Mean
Posted transaction
A transaction received from a connected account. This is history, not a prediction.
Scheduled pattern
A predicted bill, paycheck, subscription, or transfer based on repeated timing and amount evidence. It is expected, not guaranteed.
Spending estimate
An aggregate balance buffer based on recent variable spending. It is not a merchant-specific scheduled charge; available rows show their recent historical mix.
AI Processing
Arc's core forecast is generated deterministically from your selected account history and saved inputs. When you use AI-assisted suggestions, advisor chat, or optional forecast refinement, Arc may send a minimized slice of relevant transaction labels, dates, amounts, categories, and forecast context to the configured AI provider. Merchant text and user-entered text are treated as data, not trusted instructions.
The Privacy Policy and GLBA Notice govern data handling. AI output does not move money and should not be treated as financial, tax, or legal advice.
Trust Principles
Read-only connection
Arc does not store bank credentials and cannot move money.
Account scope control
You choose which accounts drive each forecast view.
Visible assumptions
Saved forecast inputs stay reviewable and removable.